Myanmar’s military-scripted polls, India’s strategic bind, Pg6

Key Highlights:

• Myanmar's military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won elections held in three phases between late December 2025 and January 2026.
• Voting was permitted in only 265 of 330 townships, with the junta claiming a 55% voter turnout, a decline from 70% in 2015 and 2020.
• The Union Election Commission dissolved opposition parties like the National League for Democracy (NLD).
• Since the 2021 coup, over 7,738 people have been killed and 22,767 remain in detention, including Aung San Suu Kyi.
• India's Act East Policy is impacted due to Myanmar's strategic importance and internal instability.
• India has rescued 2,165 Indians from cyber scam centers in Myanmar since 2022.

Detailed Insights:

• The elections are viewed as a military attempt to manufacture political normalcy after the February 1, 2021 coup.
• The decline in voter turnout reflects widespread rejection of the military-scripted political exercise rather than voter apathy.
• Resistance groups, including the People’s Defence Forces, control large areas, suggesting the conflict will likely intensify post-election.
• India supports Myanmar's democratic transition, advocating for free, fair, and inclusive elections with all political stakeholders involved.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in August 2025, emphasizing the importance of fair elections.
• Instability in Myanmar has led to over 90,100 refugees in Mizoram and Manipur, straining state resources due to the lack of a national refugee policy.
• Projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway face delays due to regional insecurity.
• Transnational security threats, such as narcotics and human trafficking, have increased due to weakened border controls.
• India is likely to maintain limited engagement with the current regime while keeping contacts with local actors to protect its core interests.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Act East Policy: India's initiative to promote economic, strategic and cultural relations with the Asia-Pacific region.
• Junta: A military or political group that rules a country after taking power by force.
• Transnational Crime: Crimes that occur across national borders, involving multiple countries.