How Trump’s ‘G-2’ Framing for US-China Relations Could Impact Allies, Pg 19

Key Highlights:

• Trump called the US and China the “G-2”, signaling parity in great-power status.
• The term G-2 was originally introduced in 2005 by economist C. Fred Bergsten to encourage closer cooperation between the US and China.
• China’s global power and military presence have increased significantly under Xi Jinping.
• The US under Trump (2017–2021) defined China as a strategic rival and pushed back through trade tariffs and Quad revival.
• Current signaling of US-China cooperation may cause uncertainty among allies who rely on the US to balance China’s assertiveness.

Detailed Insights:

• Changing Power Equation:
  • Earlier, the G-2 idea meant cooperation within existing systems.
  • Today, acknowledging a US-China duopoly implies shared leadership in shaping global rules, potentially sidelining other major powers.
• Impact on Indo-Pacific Strategy:
  • The US had led the response against China’s expansion in the South China Sea and strengthened the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, US).
  • A pivot back toward cooperation with China could weaken strategic balancing efforts.
• Concerns for India:
  • India has faced heightened Chinese military pressure along the LAC and relies on the Quad to counter Beijing.
  • Strained ties due to US tariffs on India, and discussions of replacing India with the Philippines in certain quad-like conversations, add complexity.
  • India’s growing economic and strategic weight, however, ensures it remains central to Indo-Pacific frameworks.
• Concerns for Japan & Australia:
  • Both countries depend on US security guarantees to counter China’s regional assertiveness.
  • A strong US-China rapprochement may raise fears of policy compromises at allies’ expense.

Scientific/Technical Concepts Involved:

• G-2 (Group of Two): A conceptual power bloc where the US and China act jointly to manage global governance, trade, and strategic stability.
• Quad: A strategic security dialogue among India, Japan, Australia, and the US to ensure a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific.
• Great-Power Competition: Rivalry between major powers for global influence, shaping alliances and geopolitical ordering.