Rain & fertiliser shortfall can be an opportunity, Pg10

Key Highlights:

• India's farm sector grew by 4.2% in 2024-25 and 3.2% in 2025-26 due to favorable monsoons.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a below-normal monsoon for the current year, with overall rainfall at 90% of Long Period Average (LPA).
• A weak-to-moderate El Niño is expected during the monsoon, potentially intensifying to strong-to-very strong during the Rabi season (November-January).
• The primary impact of this El Niño and potential fertilizer shortfalls is anticipated on Rabi crops, not the current Kharif plantings.
• Disruptions from the West Asia conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade could affect fertilizer supply for the Rabi season.
• India aims to leverage these challenges by promoting millets, pulses, and oilseeds, which require less water and fertilizers.

Detailed Insights:

• India experienced two consecutive years of good monsoons in 2024 (104% of LPA) and 2025 (110% of LPA), contributing to agricultural growth.
• The current year's monsoon prognosis is less favorable due to the expected return of El Niño, which typically suppresses rainfall and leads to warmer, shorter winters.
• While Kharif crop plantings have just begun, the more severe agricultural impact is projected for the Rabi season, as El Niño conditions are expected to peak then.
• Warmer and shorter winters, a consequence of strong El Niño, can negatively affect Rabi crops that thrive in cooler temperatures.
• The global fertilizer supply chain faces disruptions from the West Asia conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for fertilizer trade.
• India imported a record 16.9 million tonnes (mt) of vegetable oils in 2025-26 and 7.3 mt of pulses the previous fiscal year.
• Promoting crops like millets, pulses, and oilseeds can reduce dependence on water and fertilizers, especially urea (nitrogen).
• Farmers' adoption of these crops can be incentivized through Minimum Support Prices (MSP), either via direct government procurement or price difference payments.
• Such MSP assurance should be conditional on cost/market-driven pricing of water and fertilizers to encourage efficient resource use.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, often leading to reduced monsoon rainfall in India.
• Long Period Average (LPA): The average rainfall recorded over a specific region for a given interval (e.g., monsoon season) over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years, used as a benchmark for forecasts.
• Kharif Season: India's monsoon cropping season, typically from June to October, when crops like rice, maize, and cotton are sown.
• Rabi Season: India's winter cropping season, generally from October to April, when crops like wheat, mustard, and gram are sown.
• Minimum Support Price (MSP): A guaranteed price set by the Government of India for certain agricultural crops to protect farmers from market price fluctuations and ensure a remunerative price.
• Strait of Hormuz: A narrow sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, crucial for global oil, gas, and fertilizer shipments.