​Missed call, Pg8

Key Highlights:

• The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 4, three days later than its normal onset date of June 1.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
• There is a 60% probability of an outright deficient monsoon year, marking IMD's most pessimistic pre-season call in a decade.
• This forecast is primarily influenced by the near-certainty of El Niño conditions throughout the monsoon season.
• Only the Northeast region is expected to receive normal rainfall, while other major agricultural zones are predicted to face shortfalls.

Detailed Insights:

• This is the first instance since 2015 that the IMD's monsoon onset forecast for Kerala has been outside its margin of error.
• Historically, the date of monsoon onset over Kerala has little statistical correlation with the total rainfall received during the four-month season.
• The distribution of rainfall, including potential long dry spells, is critical for agriculture, as it can severely impact sown crops.
• The current monsoon season begins amidst an existing input crisis, stemming from the West Asia conflict and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, affecting energy supply and fertilizer production.
• Approximately 60% of El Niño years since 1951 have led to deficient or below-normal monsoon rains, with notable droughts in 2002, 2009, 2014, and 2015.
• The government must prepare on a war footing, involving the Agriculture Ministry, Jal Shakti Ministry, Consumer Affairs Ministry, and disaster management authorities.
• Farmers should receive advisories to shift towards cultivating short-duration pulses, oilseeds, and millets, which are less water-intensive, over crops like paddy.
• Effective groundwater and reservoir management are crucial, alongside readying crop insurance and relief provisioning mechanisms.
• A weak monsoon and parched landscapes will exacerbate the impact of severe heat days across the country.

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Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: A climate phenomenon characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, often leading to suppressed monsoon rainfall in India.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): An ocean-atmosphere interaction defined by the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean, influencing monsoon patterns.
• Long Period Average (LPA): The average rainfall recorded over a specific region for a given period, typically 30 or 50 years, serving as a benchmark for monsoon forecasts.
• Kharif Crops: Crops sown at the beginning of the monsoon season (June-July) and harvested in autumn (September-October), heavily dependent on monsoon rains for growth.