A brief history of the Russia-Ukraine war, Pg 10

Origins of the Conflict

• Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, expecting a quick victory.
• Ukraine, with Western support, resisted effectively, leading to a prolonged war.
• The US under Biden adopted a "support-and-sanctions" approach, aiding Ukraine militarily while imposing sanctions on Russia.

Recent Policy Shifts

• Donald Trump’s return to prominence signals a major shift in US foreign policy on Ukraine.
• Trump suggested that Ukraine should seek peace with Russia and questioned US funding for Kyiv.
• Europe is uncertain about continued US support, as Trump’s approach deviates from Biden’s pro-Ukraine stance.

US and European Involvement

• The US has committed $139.3 billion to Ukraine since 2022, while Europe has provided $120.2 billion.
• Biden views Russia as a systemic threat, aligning with NATO’s policy of deterring Moscow.
• Trump, however, favors a Sino-Russian realignment to counterbalance China.

Current War Scenario

• Ukraine struggles with military and economic challenges, reliant on Western aid to sustain its war effort.
• Russia continues to consolidate control over occupied regions despite setbacks.

Analysis & Way Forward

• The future of the war depends on US and European support.
• As Trump returns, aid to Ukraine may be reduced, forcing Kyiv to negotiate peace.
• The conflict could reshape global alliances, influencing NATO’s security policies.

Mains Mock Question:

Analyze the impact of shifting US foreign policy on the Russia-Ukraine war and its implications for global security. (250 words)