Monsoon sets in over Kerala three days late, Pg1

Key Highlights:

• The Southwest Monsoon commenced over Kerala on Thursday, three days later than its normal onset date of June 1.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had initially forecast an earlier arrival around May 26, missing its prediction window by five days.
• The onset occurs amidst concerns of a strengthening El Nino, with the World Meteorological Organisation estimating an 80% chance of its development during July and August.
• The IMD has projected a below-normal monsoon season at 90% of the Long-Period Average (LPA).
• A weak monsoon could severely impact kharif sowing, reservoir levels, and groundwater recharge, straining the rain-fed agricultural sector.

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Detailed Insights:

• The Southwest Monsoon is crucial for India, accounting for approximately 75% of the country's annual rainfall and significantly impacting agriculture, water supply, and the economy.
• The IMD declares monsoon onset based on specific criteria including rainfall (at least 60% of 14 designated stations reporting 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days after May 10), wind field (westerly winds up to 4.5 km above mean sea level at 20-25 knots), and convective cloudiness.
• El Nino typically leads to a weakened Southwest Monsoon in India, resulting in below-normal rainfall and increased chances of drought.
• The kharif season, also known as the monsoon crop season, runs from June to October, with crops sown at the onset of the monsoon and harvested at its end.
• Major kharif crops like rice, maize, and pulses are highly dependent on adequate monsoon rainfall.
• This marks the first time since 2015 that the IMD's operational forecast for monsoon onset has deviated beyond its error margin.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Southwest Monsoon: Seasonal winds bringing significant rainfall to India from June to September, vital for agriculture and water resources.
• El Nino: A climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often leading to weaker Indian monsoons.
• Kharif Sowing: The agricultural period from June to October when crops dependent on monsoon rains are sown and cultivated.
• Long-Period Average (LPA): A benchmark average rainfall figure used by the IMD to classify monsoon performance over a long duration, typically 50 years.