India must rethink its Arctic outlook, Pg8

• The Arctic is undergoing rapid militarisation and strategic realignment amid climate change and melting ice caps.

  • India’s 2022 Arctic Policy focuses on climate science and sustainable development, but overlooks growing geo-strategic contestation.

  • China’s and Russia’s assertiveness, along with U.S. and NATO’s increased presence, are reshaping Arctic dynamics, blurring boundaries with the Indo-Pacific.

  • India risks geopolitical marginalisation if it does not adapt its Arctic posture to the new era of power projection and connectivity corridors.

1. Arctic Militarisation and Geopolitics:

• Opening of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) due to ice melt makes the Arctic a viable global trade route, challenging the Indian Ocean’s primacy.

  • Strategic players are reopening military bases, deploying submarines, and reinforcing maritime claims.

  • The Arctic is no longer just about scientific cooperation, but a theatre of military and strategic rivalry.

2. India’s Current Arctic Approach:

• India’s 2022 Arctic Policy emphasizes:

  • Climate change monitoring

    • Sustainable development

    • Parallels with the Himalayas (Third Pole theory)

    • However, it lacks engagement on access governance, shipping norms, and maritime infrastructure, unlike China’s dual-use investments.

3. Challenges for India:

• Risk of geostrategic irrelevance as regional actors shift from cooperation to competition.

  • Current policy mechanisms (research station, observer status in Arctic Council) are symbolic, not strategic.

  • Rising China-Russia cooperation in the Arctic may reroute global trade and bypass traditional Indian Ocean channels, undermining India's maritime leverage.

4. What Should India Do?

Three-Part Strategy Proposed:

1. Institutionalise Arctic Engagement:

   • Create Arctic cells in MEA, MoD, with regular assessments and policy input.

     • Collaborate with think tanks and satellite agencies.

   2. Enhance Dual-use Infrastructure Diplomacy:

      • Build credibility without antagonising others.

      • Focus on maritime domain awareness, satellite monitoring, and polar logistics.

   3. Claim Strategic Stake at Emerging Forums:

      • Influence rules on shipping, blue economy, connectivity standards, etc.

      • Align Arctic goals with Indo-Pacific strategies like SAGAR and IORA.

Scientific/Strategic Concepts Involved:

• Northern Sea Route (NSR): Arctic oceanic corridor with emerging strategic and trade relevance.

  • Blue Economy Diplomacy: Leveraging ocean resources sustainably while ensuring geopolitical influence.

  • Third Pole Theory: Links between Arctic and Himalayan glacial systems affecting Indian monsoons and security.

Significance:

• A revised Arctic approach is crucial for:

  • Preserving India’s maritime centrality,

    • Avoiding economic isolation due to shifting trade corridors,

    • Establishing India as a stakeholder in polar governance, not just a scientific observer.

    • Strategic autonomy, not alignment, should be India’s principle—but it must be backed by presence, policy and preparedness.

Mains Mock Question:

"Discuss how melting Arctic ice and the opening of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are reshaping global geopolitics. How should India recalibrate its Arctic policy in this emerging context?"