The maritime signalling after Operation Sindoor, Pg6

Key Highlights:

• Following the May 2025 standoff, India and Pakistan are increasing naval activity, indicating readiness for potential maritime escalation.
• Defence Minister Rajnath Singh warned Pakistan on October 2 of a strong response if provoked in the Sir Creek area, where Pakistan has been expanding military infrastructure since 2023.
• Pakistan has reinforced its maritime presence by dispersing assets, launching the PNS Mangro submarine, and testing the P282 ship-launched ballistic missile.
• India inducted the INS Nistar, its first indigenous diving support vessel, and conducted joint patrols with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Detailed Insights:

• The increased naval activity raises concerns about a shift in the India-Pakistan deterrence equation at sea, especially after the air domain standoff.
• While India maintains numerical and geographical advantages, its aging naval fleet and Pakistan's growing capabilities are narrowing the gap.
• Escalation control at sea is more challenging than in the air, as naval engagements carry a higher risk of triggering war, influenced by historical events like the 1971 conflict.
• Pakistan's development of Gwadar under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) framework is seen as a strategic move for deterrence.
• Chinese involvement in Karachi and Gwadar ports, along with Türkiye's emerging role, introduces external dimensions that complicate India's dominance.
• Both countries' parallel exercises and missile tests indicate efforts to demonstrate readiness and shape a future "conflict-template" at sea.
• The risk of miscalculation grows as both militaries operate on precedents from past crises, even with new capabilities altering the escalatory ladder.
• India's challenge is to decide whether to use the maritime theatre for early signalling or reserve it as a domain of escalation, balancing regional roles and crisis-specific levers.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Deterrence: Discouraging an adversary from taking action through the threat of retaliation.
• Escalation Control: Managing and limiting the intensity of a conflict to prevent it from expanding.
• A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial): Strategies to prevent an adversary from entering or operating within a specific area.