India, Myanmar and a shifting balance, Pg12

Key Highlights:

• Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of Myanmar's State Administration Council, concluded a five-day state visit to India on June 3, 2026, marking his first overseas trip since assuming his current role.
• The visit aimed to address Myanmar's diplomatic isolation following the February 2021 military coup and the ongoing multi-front civil war.
• Discussions between Min Aung Hlaing and Prime Minister Narendra Modi covered cooperation in security, trade, rare earths, healthcare, and connectivity projects.
• India's engagement is driven by concerns over border security, the influx of refugees into Mizoram and Manipur, and the strategic importance of Myanmar for its Act East Policy.
• Bilateral trade between India and Myanmar reached approximately $2.1 billion in 2024-25, with a rupee-kyat settlement mechanism launched in May 2024 to boost economic ties.

Detailed Insights:

• The February 1, 2021, military coup led by Min Aung Hlaing deposed the democratically elected government, resulting in the house arrest and conviction of then-head of government Aung San Suu Kyi.
• Myanmar is currently embroiled in a civil war involving the military (Tatmadaw), pro-democracy forces, and various ethnic militias, leading to widespread instability and humanitarian crises.
• The instability in Myanmar has transnational repercussions, including cross-border militancy and a significant refugee influx, particularly of the Chin community, into India's northeastern states.
• India maintains a flexible approach to its neighborhood policy, balancing engagement with the Naypyidaw administration and non-state actors controlling border regions, given the military's weaker control over these areas.
• Myanmar serves as a crucial land bridge for India's Act East Policy, which seeks to enhance economic and strategic ties with Southeast Asian nations.
• China has significantly expanded its influence in Myanmar, supporting the military leadership to protect its strategic interests, including oil and gas infrastructure, which poses a challenge to India's regional standing.
• The recent visit aimed to strengthen bilateral relations, with India being Myanmar's fourth-largest trading partner, and discussions focusing on deepening trade in commodities like rare earth minerals.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Junta: A military or political group that rules a country after taking power by force.
• Act East Policy: India's foreign policy initiative to strengthen economic, strategic, and cultural relations with the Indo-Pacific region, particularly Southeast and East Asian countries.
• Diplomatic Isolation: The state of being cut off from international relations and engagement by other countries.
• Transnational repercussions: Effects or consequences of an event or situation that extend beyond national borders, impacting multiple countries.