Can the Indus Waters Treaty be suspended unilaterally?, Pg10

• India announced the IWT will be held in abeyance after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack.

  • The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) grants India full control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan controls the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).

  • Article XII of IWT clearly states that it cannot be altered unilaterally.

Is unilateral suspension legal?

• "Hold in abeyance" is not a term recognized under international treaty law (VCLT 1969). The proper term is “suspension” or “termination.”

  • Vienna Convention Article 62 permits treaty withdrawal if there's a “fundamental change in circumstances”.

  • However, the ICJ (Fisheries Jurisdiction and Hungary-Slovakia Dam cases) held that political/environmental changes alone are insufficient to justify such action unless the threshold is extremely high.

How will it affect Pakistan?

• Pakistan is heavily reliant on Indus waters for:

    - **80% of its agriculture**
    - **One-third of its hydropower output**
  
  
  India’s current infrastructure lacks the capacity to withhold massive water volumes but could still introduce uncertainty over flows, disrupting Pakistan’s economy.
  

• If India shifts to drawdown flushing, redesigning hydroprojects, or increasing run-of-river regulation, Pakistan could experience sudden disruptions without actual treaty termination.

India's legal strategy

• India might be using “abeyance” as a tactical tool without outright violating the treaty.

  • It could trigger global attention and push Pakistan diplomatically without breaching Article XII.

Scientific/Legal Concepts Involved:

• Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT): Governs how treaties are created, modified, suspended, or terminated.

  • Run-of-the-River Hydropower: A system with limited storage; cannot hold water for long durations.

  • Customary International Law: Even without ratification, widely accepted principles apply, like Article 62.

Significance:

• Marks a strategic policy shift using water as a diplomatic lever.

  • Highlights the role of hydropolitics in national security.

  • Could set a precedent in India's treaty management under new threat scenarios.

Mains Mock Question:

"Can India suspend the Indus Waters Treaty unilaterally under international law? Discuss the legal, strategic, and environmental implications of such a move."