India experienced 5th wettest monsoon since 2001, more rain in October, says IMD, Pg12.

Key Highlights:

• India's southwest monsoon season ended with 8% surplus rainfall, totaling 937.2mm from June to September.
• The IMD forecasts continued rainfall into October in northeast, central, and peninsular India due to delayed monsoon withdrawal.
• A low-pressure area near Kutch will bring rain to Gujarat and Maharashtra, with another system forming over the Bay of Bengal affecting Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.
• India experienced its 5th wettest monsoon since 2001, marking the second consecutive year of above-normal rainfall.
• Above-normal rainfall is expected in south peninsular India during October-December, benefiting from the northeast monsoon.
• The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is transitioning from neutral to a weak La Nina phase.

Detailed Insights:

• The delayed monsoon withdrawal is attributed to unfavorable conditions, with complete withdrawal not expected before October 12.
• The northeast monsoon, which typically begins around October 20, impacts Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Puducherry, and south-interior Karnataka.
• Above-normal rainfall in October is expected across most of India, excluding Jammu and Kashmir and southern parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, due to delayed monsoon withdrawal and low-pressure systems.
• Day temperatures in October are likely to be below normal, except in northeast India, while nights will be warmer due to cloud cover.
• Despite rain-related disasters in some regions, the IMD noted good spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall this monsoon season.
• The developing weak La Nina phase is expected to be short-lived before returning to neutral ENSO conditions.

Scientific/Technical Concepts Involved:

• Monsoon: Seasonal shift in wind direction causing distinct wet and dry periods in many regions.
• El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting global weather patterns.
• La Nina: Climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface ocean waters along the tropical west coast of South America.