Below normal rain in July, current deficit 40%: IMD, Pg1

Key Highlights:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast "below normal" rainfall for July, which is less than 94% of the usual for the month.
• India is currently facing a monsoon deficit of 40%.
• June rainfall was the fifth lowest since 1901 and the least since 2014, with a nearly 40% shortfall.
• The El Niño phenomenon, which developed in June, is identified as a negative factor impacting rainfall.
• Sowing of Kharif crops has declined by 22% compared to last year, with key water reservoirs holding 25% less water than in June 2025.

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Detailed Insights:

• Below-normal rainfall poses significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, and drinking water availability.
• The IMD has advised timely planning, water conservation, efficient water management, and suitable agricultural contingency measures.
• The weak June rainfall was attributed to the absence of typical low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal.
• While the first week of July is expected to bring good rainfall, the overall outlook for the month remains bleak due to the anticipated weak monsoon.
• Surplus water storage from previous good monsoons might deplete faster due to higher evaporation from low rains and high temperatures.
• The current year is warned to be a 'Super El Niño' year, with six out of ten El Niño years historically resulting in weak southwest monsoon rainfall.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate pattern affecting sea surface temperatures, could potentially ameliorate El Niño's impact if it develops in a positive phase.
• However, current models suggest a 'neutral' IOD, indicating it may not significantly offset the El Niño effect.
• Historically, only the 1997-98 El Niño year saw above-normal rainfall in India due to a favorable IOD phase.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Monsoon Deficit: A shortfall in rainfall compared to the long-period average during the monsoon season.
• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, often leading to weaker monsoons in India.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): An irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean, which can strengthen or weaken the Indian monsoon depending on its phase.
• Kharif Crop: Crops sown at the beginning of the southwest monsoon (June–July) and harvested in September–October, highly dependent on monsoon rainfall.