The impact of suspending a water treaty, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• In response to the Pahalgam terror attack, India s Cabinet Committee on Security decided to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, holding it in abeyance unless Pakistan ends support to cross-border terrorism.
  • This decision, while politically strong, raises strategic, legal, and infrastructural implications.

Detailed Insights:

• Article XII of IWT does not allow unilateral withdrawal; India may rely on the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), though Pakistan is not a party to it.
  • India may halt water flow data sharing, water releases, and delay or block flow during high monsoon.
  • Pakistan s reliance on the Indus system (Jhelum, Chenab, Indus) makes it vulnerable due to limited dam storage and poor irrigation infrastructure.
  • Suspension may aggravate intra-provincial disputes in Pakistan (Punjab vs Sindh), especially over the Cholistan canal project.

India s Preparedness:

• To utilise its full share under IWT, India must complete key projects: - Storage: 3.6 MAF target, only 1 MAF achieved. - Irrigation: 1.34 million acres in J&K and Ladakh. - Run-of-the-river dams: Kishanganga, Ratle, Baglihar, Pakal Dul. - Progress is slow due to terrain, legal disputes, and diplomatic sensitivities.

Geopolitical Risks:

• May trigger Chinese reactions on Brahmaputra water-sharing and MoUs on hydrological data.
  • Could also affect Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh, due for renewal in 2026.
  • Suspension may be viewed as weaponising water, drawing global scrutiny and diplomatic costs.

Significance:

• Aims to pressure Pakistan diplomatically, but risks India s global image as a responsible treaty partner.
  • Raises important issues on water security, regional geopolitics, and the limits of treaty-based conflict management.

Mains Mock Question:

India s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty in response to cross-border terrorism is both strategic and controversial. Critically examine the implications for regional diplomacy, legal obligations, and water security.