Summer set to be warmer, but El Nino unlikely during next monsoon: IMD, Pg 1

Summer set to be warmer, but El Nino unlikely during next monsoon: IMD, Pg 1

Key Highlights

Forecast on El Nino & Monsoon Outlook

• IMD has ruled out El Nino conditions for the 2024 monsoon season.

• Neutral El Nino conditions expected, reducing the likelihood of monsoon disruption.

• In contrast, 2023 witnessed a 6% monsoon deficit due to El Nino.

Heatwave Projections & Regional Climate Concerns

• Above-normal summer temperatures expected before the monsoon.

• April to June may see 47 heatwave days, with temperatures exceeding 45C or rising >5C above normal.

• Eastern India may face up to 10 heatwave days.

Climatic Patterns & Previous Data

• 2023: Monsoon shortfall of 6% due to El Nino.

• 2022: 8% surplus rainfall under neutral ENSO conditions.

IMDs Forecasting Approach

• Combines international models with regional oceanic trends, including Indian Ocean conditions.

• First detailed monsoon forecast expected in April.

Analysis & Way Forward

• Reliable climate forecasting by IMD is crucial for agricultural planning and disaster preparedness.

• Heatwave management needs early warning systems, urban cooling strategies, and awareness campaigns, especially in vulnerable regions like eastern India.

Mains Mock Question:

_"How do El Nino and La Nina phenomena influence the Indian monsoon? In this context, discuss the role of climate forecasting agencies like IMD in ensuring climate resilience."_