Bharat Forecast System: Launch, Objectives & Key Details

With a 6 km grid resolution, the Bharat Forecast System surpasses global models like ECMWF and GFS, and is India’s first fully indigenous weather prediction system under ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’.

• Important for Prelims & Current Affairs
• Relevant for GS Paper 3 (Environment & Climate Change).
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The Bharat Forecast System (BFS) is India’s most sophisticated weather prediction model, developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

• This indigenous system provides weather forecasts with an accuracy down to a 6 km × 6 km grid resolution, one of the highest globally..
• It is operated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and powered by the advanced Arka supercomputer.

The Bharat Forecast System includes several innovative features that set it apart from traditional weather models.

1. Ultra-High Resolution: The BFS system operates at an unprecedented spatial resolution of 6 km × 6 km. This improvement allows for weather predictions at the level of individual villages and panchayats rather than for larger administrative blocks.

2. Advanced Computing Infrastructure: The system is powered by the Arka supercomputer at IITM Pune, boasting 11.77 petaflops of processing power and 33 petabytes of storage capacity. This computational capability reduces forecasting time from 10-12 hours to just 3-4 hours.

3. Doppler Radar Integration: BFS utilizes data from 40 Doppler Weather Radars across India, with plans to expand to 100 radars for comprehensive nationwide coverage.

4. Triangular-Cubic-Octahedral (TCO) Grid: The system uses a special grid design that gives higher resolution over tropical regions like India. This makes it especially effective for predicting monsoons and cyclones.

The Bharat Forecast System introduces several revolutionary improvements in weather prediction accuracy and timeliness:

• Enhanced Accuracy: Testing since 2022 has demonstrated a 30% improvement in extreme rainfall forecasts and an impressive 64% enhancement in core monsoon region predictions. Cyclone track and intensity forecasts have also shown marked improvement.
• Localized Precision: BFS can generate separate forecasts for each village, enabling precise agricultural and disaster management planning.
• Faster Processing: The advanced Arka supercomputer processes complex meteorological calculations in 3-4 hours, enabling more timely warnings and advisories.
• Extended Coverage: BFS provides forecasts for the entire tropical region between 30°S and 30°N latitudes, covering not just India but benefiting other tropical countries as well.
• Seamless Integration: BFS delivers forecasts ranging from short-term (3 days) to medium-term (7 days) with consistent accuracy across all time scales.

The Bharat Forecast System is notably superior when compared to prominent international weather models. 

• Resolution Superiority: The Bharat Forecast System runs at a 6 km resolution, which is sharper than the European ECMWF (9 km), US GFS (12.5 km), and UK Met Office (10 km) models.
• Tropical Region Focus: Unlike global models made for the whole world, BFS is specially designed for tropical weather, so it works better for India’s monsoons and cyclones.
• Cost Effectiveness: As an indigenous system, BFS eliminates dependency on foreign technology and reduces long-term operational costs while maintaining superior performance.

Also read: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

The Bharat Forecast System brings important changes for India's economic growth path. Here’s an overview.

1. Agricultural Sector Impact:

• Agriculture makes up about 18% of India’s GDP and gives jobs to nearly half the population.
• Accurate weather forecasts help farmers plan better, and advisories based on these can increase their incomes by up to 50%.

2. Urban Planning: Cities can better prepare for flash floods, heat waves, and air quality issues using hyperlocal weather data, improving public health outcomes.

3. Disaster Risk Reduction: BFS enables better disaster preparedness and early warning systems, potentially saving thousands of lives and reducing economic damage.

4. Insurance and Finance: More accurate weather predictions enable better risk assessment for crop insurance, catastrophe bonds, and weather derivatives, supporting financial sector stability.

5. Aviation and Transportation: Accurate BFS forecasts help aviation with safer flights and fewer delays by giving better wind, visibility, and turbulence predictions.

The Bharat Forecast System represents a transformative milestone in India’s meteorological capabilities and technological sovereignty. By achieving the world’s highest-resolution weather forecasting through indigenous innovation, India has positioned itself as a global leader in meteorological science. The system’s ability to provide village-level precision in weather prediction promises to revolutionize disaster management, agricultural planning, and economic decision-making across the country.

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