Ten years and 7 PMs later, did Brexit make a difference?, Pg7

Key Highlights:

• The United Kingdom has experienced seven Prime Ministers since the Brexit referendum in June 2016, indicating significant political volatility.
• Brexit legally came into force in January 2020, with primary objectives to control migration and establish an independent trade policy.
• Net migration to the UK more than tripled post-Brexit, reaching 891,000 in 2022 and 848,000 in 2023, despite a decrease in migration from European Union countries.
• The UK's trade deficit with the European Union widened from 13.5% of its exports in 2021 to 23.5% in 2025.
• Inflation-adjusted goods exports in 2025 remained weaker than pre-pandemic and pre-U.K.-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement levels.

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Detailed Insights:

• The Vote Leave campaign in the 2016 referendum promised to "take back control" of borders by ending the EU's free movement programme.
• Post-Brexit, the composition of migrants shifted, with a decline in EU migration and a significant increase in non-EU migration.
• The U.K.-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement was established to maintain zero tariffs and avoid reverting to World Trade Organization rules.
• Despite the agreement, the UK has not significantly improved its trade surplus with non-EU countries, limiting the perceived trade benefits of Brexit.
• The Office for National Statistics reported a temporary surge in UK gas exports to the EU in 2022, driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and UK's regasification infrastructure.
• While goods exports struggled, the UK's services exports have recovered since the pandemic, suggesting less impact from Brexit on this sector.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Brexit: The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, following a national referendum in 2016.
• European Union (EU): A political and economic union of 27 member states primarily located in Europe.
• U.K.-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement: A free trade agreement that governs the relationship between the UK and the EU after Brexit.
• Free movement programme: An EU policy allowing citizens of member states to live and work freely across other member countries.
• World Trade Organization (WTO): An intergovernmental organization that regulates and facilitates international trade.