June to be fifth-driest since 1901; monsoon to reach Delhi in July, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• June 2026 is projected to be the fifth-driest June since 1901, experiencing a rainfall deficit exceeding 43%.
• The country recorded only 85.2 mm rainfall until Sunday, significantly below the Long Period Average (LPA) of 165.3 mm for June.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had initially predicted 92% rainfall for June and 90% for the entire monsoon season.
• Monsoon arrival in Delhi and major parts of North India is delayed, now expected in early July.

Detailed Insights:

• Since 1901, June rainfall has been below 100 mm in only four years: 1905, 1926, 2009, and 2014.
• The driest June on record occurred in 2009, with India receiving just 87.5 mm rainfall.
• The significant deficit for June 2026 is likely to necessitate a reassessment of the seasonal monsoon forecast by the IMD.
• The El Niño phenomenon, which is still strengthening and yet to reach its peak, is expected to impact the remaining monsoon months.
• Three of the four years with June rainfall below 100 mm (1926, 2009, 2014) were also affected by El Niño.
• While El Niño played a marginal role in suppressing June rains, its full impact on India's weather is anticipated later.
• Subdued June rainfall could also be attributed to other local and global factors beyond El Niño.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, impacting global weather.
• Long Period Average (LPA): The average rainfall recorded over a specific period (e.g., 50 years) for a region, used as a benchmark for monsoon performance.
• India Meteorological Department (IMD): The principal agency of the Government of India responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting, and seismology.