A China-led trilateral nexus as India’s new challenge, Pg8

Context:

• China has initiated new trilateral dialogues with Pakistan and Afghanistan, and now with Bangladesh, signalling a strategic effort to challenge India's regional influence and keep New Delhi engaged with immediate security threats.

Key Highlights:

• China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh held their first trilateral meeting in Kunming, China.
• China recently conducted a separate trilateral with Pakistan and Afghanistan aimed at extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
• These efforts come amid Pakistan’s declining regional relevance and India’s strained ties with Bangladesh.
• Pakistan’s dependence on China includes over $29 billion in loans and 80% of its arms imports.
• China shielded Pakistan-backed terrorists at international forums and criticised India’s Operation Sindoor.
• Pakistan used Chinese military equipment during escalations after the Pahalgam terror attack.
• India has responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, restricting trade, and targeting Pakistan’s military installations.

Detailed Insights:

• The strategic use of trilaterals is a geopolitical tool by China to make Pakistan a regional stakeholder and isolate India.
• India’s rising confidence, demonstrated through surgical strikes and balancing diplomacy, has diminished Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence narrative.
• Regional states such as the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka show signs of rebalancing toward India due to China’s funding unreliability and strategic overreach.
• China’s growing engagement with Bangladesh and Afghanistan coincides with regime changes that have made them more susceptible to Chinese and Pakistani influence.
• The trilateral strategy aims to open space for Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) interests while keeping India distracted by border and terror threats.
• India’s challenge lies in maintaining influence and preventing a China-backed realignment in South Asia.

Key Concepts Involved:

• China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): A network of infrastructure projects linking Gwadar Port in Pakistan to China’s Xinjiang region, part of the larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• Operation Sindoor: India’s retaliatory counter-terror operation following the Pahalgam terror attack, highlighting its shift from strategic restraint to proactive defence.
• Trilateral Diplomacy: Strategic dialogues involving three nations to align or balance geopolitical interests, often used to reconfigure regional power dynamics.