A poll win for Tarique Rahman is not a forgone conclusion, Pg15

Key Highlights:

• Tarique Rahman, a leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), returned to Bangladesh on December 25, 2025, after a 17-year exile, amid political turmoil and violence.
• The unrest is allegedly driven by the Jamaat-e-Islami and elements seeking to undermine the post-1971 order, leading to economic instability and rising anti-India sentiment.
• Veena Sikri, former High Commissioner of India to Bangladesh, suggests that the current climate may prevent free and fair elections, as the Awami League is banned from contesting.
• India is advised to maintain goodwill, continue aid and trade, and insist on inclusive elections to ensure the people of Bangladesh can exercise their choice.

Detailed Insights:

• The current turmoil can be traced back to July-August 2024, with allegations of a planned operation aimed at regime change, involving figures like Muhammad Yunus.
• Jamaat-e-Islami aims to dismantle the post-1971 order, marginalize minorities, and implement stricter Islamic practices, impacting the economic cooperation built with India under Sheikh Hasina.
• The Bangladesh economy, previously growing at 6.5-7% annually, has experienced a slowdown, with growth halving, increased unemployment due to factory closures, and high inflation.
• Tarique Rahman's potential win in the upcoming polls is uncertain due to the strong influence of Jamaat-e-Islami, which seeks to dominate any coalition and has criticized the BNP for alleged extortion.
• India faces challenges due to rising anti-India sentiment, with historical roots dating back to the 1971 Liberation War, necessitating continued economic cooperation and open communication channels.
• Security concerns are paramount for India, given the 4,000-km porous border with Bangladesh and the risk of terror operatives and insurgents using the region as a haven, especially with alleged Pakistani influence.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Regime Change: The replacement of one government or system of governance with another, often through unconventional or forceful means.
• Mobocracy: Rule by a mob or mass of people, often characterized by violence and disregard for legal processes.
• Islamisation: The process of a society shifting towards greater alignment with Islamic principles, laws, and culture.