Why below-average rains don’t rule out flood threat, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts 92% of normal rainfall this monsoon, but this doesn't account for regional variations.
• Extreme rainfall events are increasing, linked to climate change, causing disasters like the 2013 Kedarnath tragedy.
• In 2024, 181 extreme rainfall events were recorded, and 160 in 2025, indicating a rising trend.
• Urban flooding is a major concern, affecting cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Chennai, due to poor planning and unprecedented rainfall.
• Floods caused over 17,500 deaths between 2012 and 2021, and accounted for over 55% of states' disaster expenditure between 2019-20 and 2023-24.

Detailed Insights:

• The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are increasing, with rainfall occurring in shorter, more intense spells.
• Despite overall low rainfall years like 2015, 2018, and 2023, India has experienced disaster-inducing rainfall incidents.
• Climate change exacerbates the uncertainty in weather patterns, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events globally.
• Predicting extraordinarily high rainfall is difficult due to the chaotic nature of weather systems, even with advanced technology.
• Urban flooding is worsened by poor urban planning, unregulated development on floodplains, and municipal apathy.
• India has become more resilient to rainfall deficiencies, but excessive, localized rainfall in urban areas requires urgent attention.
• The Sixteenth Finance Commission highlighted the significant financial impact of floods on states' disaster management expenditure.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Intraseasonal Variation: Changes in weather patterns and rainfall distribution within a single monsoon season.
• Climate Change: Long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns, largely due to human activities.
• Urban Agglomerations: Densely populated urban areas, often facing challenges related to infrastructure and disaster management.