Wicked Surprise, Pg6

Key Highlights:

• India experienced a Southwest Monsoon deficit of 12.6% from June to September, making it the driest in 11 years.
• This deficit has negatively impacted Kharif sowing and contributed to food inflation.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a "normal" Northeast Monsoon for October to December, particularly for southern peninsular India.
• A strong El Niño phenomenon is influencing current weather patterns, historically linked to both Southwest Monsoon deficits and sometimes vigorous Northeast Monsoon activity.
• The 2015 Chennai floods, which caused significant loss of life and displacement, occurred during a powerful El Niño year.

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Detailed Insights:

• The Northeast Monsoon, also known as the winter or retreating monsoon, contributes about 11-25% of India's annual rainfall.
• It is crucial for the southeastern peninsular regions, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, and Kerala, where it accounts for 30-60% of annual rainfall.
• The Southwest Monsoon, occurring from June to September, is responsible for approximately 75% of India's total annual rainfall and is vital for the country's agriculture.
• El Niño typically leads to reduced rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon due to atmospheric circulation changes in the Pacific Ocean.
• However, the relationship between El Niño and the Northeast Monsoon is complex; while some El Niño years have seen above-normal rainfall in Tamil Nadu, others have experienced poor Northeast Monsoon activity.
• The 2015 Chennai floods were exacerbated by extreme El Niño conditions and a warming trend in the Bay of Bengal.
• States are advised to undertake precautionary measures such as clearing stormwater drains, fortifying shelters, and improving weather warning systems to prepare for potential heavy rainfall.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Northeast Monsoon: Seasonal winds blowing from the northeast to southwest (October-December), bringing rainfall primarily to India's southeastern coast.
• Southwest Monsoon: Seasonal winds blowing from the southwest to northeast (June-September), responsible for the majority of India's annual rainfall.
• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, impacting global weather.
• India Meteorological Department (IMD): The primary government agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting, and seismology in India.
• Kharif Crops: Crops sown at the beginning of the Southwest Monsoon (June-July) and harvested in September-October, such as rice, maize, and cotton.