Fertiliser Sales See Sharp Dip As El Nino Dries Up Farm Demand, Pg1

Key Highlights:

• Domestic sales of all fertilisers, including urea, declined significantly during April-September 2026 compared to the previous year.
• Complex fertiliser sales saw the sharpest dip at 22.2%, followed by Muriate of Potash (MOP) at 11.7%.
• Urea sales were down 4.1% year-on-year, marking the first dip since 2021-22, despite increased production and imports.
• The decline is primarily attributed to deficient monsoon rains and the El Nino effect, leading to subdued farm demand.
• Rainfall during the south-west monsoon (June-September) was 12.6% below normal, with October showing a 51.8% deficiency.

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Detailed Insights:

• The sales drop coincides with the Kharif (monsoon) planting season, indicating direct impact on agricultural activities.
• Data from the Integrated Fertiliser Management System (iFMS) in 10 states showed an 11.7% lower overall fertiliser sale from April 1 to October 10.
• The government boosted imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to ensure feedstock for domestic urea manufacturers, sourcing from various countries.
• Despite increased urea availability, sales dropped due to poor rains in southern states, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, south Bihar, and Assam.
• The black-market rate for urea remained low, around Rs 300 per 45-kg bag, due to ample supply and reduced farmer desperation.
• El Nino is projected to persist as a strong event through January-March 2027, potentially impacting the upcoming Rabi season.
• Complex fertiliser sales are also affected by an acute scarcity of sulphur, a key raw material, due to soaring import prices and supply disruptions.
• Domestic despatches of tractors also fell by 18.1% in September 2026, reflecting broader agricultural distress.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Nino: A climate pattern describing unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, impacting global weather.
• Kharif Season: The monsoon cropping season in India, typically from June to October, relying on south-west monsoon rains.
• Rabi Season: The winter cropping season in India, typically from October to March, relying on irrigation or winter rainfall.
• Integrated Fertiliser Management System (iFMS): A digital platform used by the Indian government to monitor fertiliser sales and distribution.