Could Perverse Incentives Lead To Inflated OBC Numbers In Census? Answer Is No, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• A recent debate addresses concerns that a caste census might lead to inflated numbers for Other Backward Classes (OBCs) due to "perverse incentives."
• The author argues against this, citing the confidentiality provisions of the Census Act, 1948, which prevent individual census data from being used for entitlements.
• Historical data from the National Sample Survey (NSS) for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) also does not show evidence of inflated numbers despite existing entitlements.
• A two-stage hierarchical question method, similar to that used for SCs and STs, is proposed for enumerating OBCs to ensure accuracy.

Detailed Insights:

• The core argument against inflated OBC numbers rests on Section 15 of the Census Act, 1948, which ensures that individual census responses are confidential and cannot be used as evidence in court or for claiming benefits.
• This legal safeguard removes any individual incentive for misreporting one's caste category during the census.
• The article refutes the idea that a rise in OBC population estimates in early National Sample Survey (NSS) rounds (1999-2000 to 2004-05) was due to false reporting, suggesting it was more likely due to initial undercounting and increased awareness of the OBC category.
• Subsequent NSS figures for OBCs (2009-10, 2014, 2017-18) show a stable share of around 42-43 percent, further discrediting the "perverse incentive" theory.
• The proposed two-stage hierarchical question involves first selecting a broad category (e.g., OBC) and then choosing from a list of specific castes within that category, allowing for self-correction and accurate data collection.
• This method aims to avoid data inconsistencies that might arise from a single, open-ended caste question.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Caste Census: A comprehensive enumeration of the population that includes data on caste affiliations, beyond Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs).
• Other Backward Classes (OBCs): Socially and educationally disadvantaged communities in India, identified for affirmative action and reservations in education and employment.
• Census Act, 1948: The legal framework governing the conduct of the census in India, ensuring data collection, confidentiality, and penalties for non-compliance.
• National Sample Survey (NSS): Large-scale sample surveys conducted by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) in India to collect socio-economic data for policy formulation and planning.