Saudi Arabia is facing a two-strait dilemma, Pg10

Key Highlights:

• Yemen's Houthi rebels have gained control of the Red Sea coast and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical global trade chokepoint.
• This control, particularly after occupying Perim Island, gives Houthis an unobstructed view over commercial maritime traffic.
• Saudi Arabia faces a "two-strait dilemma" as its primary oil export route via the Red Sea (from Yanbu) is now threatened, in addition to the existing vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, leading to attacks on Saudi tankers and oil facilities, after Saudi jets damaged Sana'a airport.
• Saudi Arabia was compelled to reroute oil shipments and cut crude oil production to 6.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, down from over 10 million bpd in January.
• The United States has refused direct military involvement, and Mecca Defence Alliance partners (Pakistan and Turkey) are reluctant to intervene militarily in Yemen.

Houthis Control.jpg

Detailed Insights:

• The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, providing access to the Suez Canal from the Arabian Sea.
• Approximately 12% of global trade passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, highlighting its strategic significance for international commerce.
• Houthi control of the strait was facilitated by a lack of support for UAE-aligned factions and internal infighting among Saudi-backed forces.
• Saudi Arabia had increasingly relied on its Red Sea port of Yanbu and the 1,200-km East-West pipeline to bypass potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Nearly 70% of Saudi oil destined for Asia previously transited through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait before the Houthi naval blockade.
• The US reluctance to intervene stems from a desire to avoid opening another front and to prevent a spike in global oil prices, especially before upcoming midterm elections.
• Pakistan had previously declined Saudi requests to join the Yemen war in 2015, despite a 1982 bilateral security agreement.
• The Houthis are now advancing to capture Marib, the center of Yemen's oil and gas industry, to further strengthen their bargaining position.
• Iran has leveraged the situation, making the end of the "blockade of Yemen" a condition for a lasting settlement with the US.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Bab el-Mandeb Strait: A narrow, strategically vital waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, crucial for global maritime trade.
• Strait of Hormuz: A critical chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, essential for a significant portion of the world's oil shipments.
• Suez Canal: An artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, significantly shortening maritime routes between Europe and Asia.
• Mecca Defence Alliance: A trilateral defence pact signed in August 2026 between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, aimed at enhancing regional security cooperation.