GS 3: EconomyPrelims

​Moving on, Pg6

CPI's outdated base year (2012) misrepresents current inflation; new CPI series with 2024 base year launching February 12.

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Key Highlights:

  • December 2025 retail inflation reached 1.33%, a three-month high but also the third-lowest since the current CPI series began.
  • April-December 2025 inflation averaged 1.7%, significantly lower than the 4.9% in the same period of 2024.
  • RBI's December survey indicated households perceived current inflation at 6.6%, expecting it to rise to 7.6% in three months and 8% in a year.
  • New CPI series with base year 2024, incorporating the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-24, will be released on February 12.

Detailed Insights:

  • Discrepancy exists between official inflation data and the inflation experienced by people, as reflected in slower private consumption growth.
  • Outdated CPI with 2012 base year fails to capture current consumption patterns influenced by central and state subsidies.
  • National inflation figures aggregate price changes across diverse regions, inevitably losing nuances in the process.
  • Updated CPI series is expected to provide a more accurate representation of current inflation trends and aid better policy decisions.

Key Concepts Involved:

  • Retail Inflation: The change in the price of a basket of goods and services that households typically purchase.
  • Base Year: The reference year used to compare price changes in subsequent periods in an index.
  • Weightage: The importance assigned to different items in an index based on their share in overall consumption.
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