Why India's Carbon Emissions Could Rise Amid Global Fall, Pg16

Key Highlights:

• Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to decline marginally by 0.4% in 2026.
• India is expected to be the only major emitter to record an increase, with a projected rise of 4.4% in fossil fuel emissions.
• This increase is higher than India's average annual rise of 3.5% over the past decade.
• The rise in India's emissions is partly attributed to increased cooling demand due to a drier monsoon and higher temperatures.
• Industrial emissions from sectors like steel and cement also contributed significantly to India's CO2 increase.

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Detailed Insights:

• The projected global decline in emissions is linked to the expansion of solar and wind power and the energy shock from the West Asia conflict.
• The Global Carbon Budget study suggests the global decline might be a short-term consequence rather than a sustained structural shift.
• India experienced an unusual surge in power demand due to persistently high temperatures and deficient rainfall, influenced by El Niño.
• Coal-based power generation in India increased by approximately 13.2% between April and November 2026 compared to the previous year.
• While overall petroleum product consumption declined, petrol consumption increased by 6.61% and diesel by 5.76% in January-October 2026.
• The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) reported a 3.7% year-on-year increase in India's CO2 emissions in the first half of 2026.
• For two years until June 2026, India's electricity demand growth was met by clean energy, stabilizing power sector emissions.
• The primary challenge for India's emissions now lies in the industrial sector, where coal remains dominant and electrification is low.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Fossil Fuel Emissions: Greenhouse gases released from burning coal, oil, and natural gas for energy production.
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2): A major greenhouse gas primarily responsible for global warming, largely from human activities.
• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting global weather.