Worst of El Niño yet to come, peak likely in December, says UN body, Pg6

Key Highlights:

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the ongoing El Niño is set to peak in December.
• This El Niño event is expected to lead to above-average global temperatures and persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since 1950.
• It increases the risk of droughts and floods worldwide due to altered rainfall patterns.
• India's 2026 southwest monsoon recorded a 13% rainfall deficit, making it the fourth driest since 2001, with El Niño impacting the latter half of the season.
• Several Indian states, including Maharashtra and Karnataka, have declared drought, with Maharashtra imposing a 10% water cut.
• Europe experienced one of its hottest summers, leading to record temperatures and dry major rivers.

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Detailed Insights:

• The WMO forecasts a near-100% likelihood of El Niño continuing through February 2027, indicating its significant and prolonged influence.
• El Niño is characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• The Nino 3.4 region, a key indicator, showed sea surface temperatures 2.5°C above normal in August.
• The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon that recurs every two to seven years.
• The 2026 monsoon's deficit highlights India's vulnerability to El Niño conditions, which typically suppress rainfall over the subcontinent.
• The global warming effect of El Niño compounds existing climate change impacts, as seen in Europe's record summer heat.
• Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with weaker or spatially uneven rainfall over India.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• La Niña: The opposite phase of El Niño, marked by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the same region.
• El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A naturally occurring climate pattern involving fluctuating ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the tropical Pacific, with warm (El Niño), neutral, and cool (La Niña) phases.
• Nino 3.4 region: A specific area in the equatorial Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) used to monitor sea surface temperature anomalies for declaring El Niño or La Niña events.