The trust deficit in India-Bangladesh ties, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• The Tarique Rahman government in Bangladesh has completed over 100 days, but India-Bangladesh relations remain strained.
• India's outreach efforts, including visits by EAM S. Jaishankar and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, have not significantly improved ties.
• Dhaka expects India to reverse "retributory steps" such as restrictions on transhipments, visa services, and market access for Bangladeshi goods.
• A major point of contention is India's rhetoric on "illegal immigration" and the pending renewal of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty.
• Bangladesh faces internal challenges including an energy crisis, a severe measles outbreak, and law and order issues.
• Prime Minister Rahman is reportedly considering visits to Malaysia and China due to slow progress in restoring ties with India.

Detailed Insights:

• The current strain follows a period of difficult relations during Muhammad Yunus's interim government after the 2024 uprising in Bangladesh.
• India had imposed measures affecting Bangladesh's trade and travel, which Dhaka views as "retributory steps" that have not been reversed.
• Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders attempted to smooth ties by downplaying the impact of Sheikh Hasina's presence in India.
• New Delhi's strong stance on illegal immigration, particularly after BJP's victories in West Bengal and Assam, has generated a "sense of betrayal" in Dhaka.
• The non-renewal of the Ganga Water Treaty by December 31, 2026, could severely impact Bangladesh's Ganges-Kobadak irrigation project.
• Bangladesh's economic stability is threatened by the energy crisis (due to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran) and a severe measles outbreak claiming 600 infant lives.
• The Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, is reportedly mobilising, potentially strengthening if the Ganga treaty is not renewed.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Trust Deficit: A lack of mutual confidence or belief in the reliability of another party, hindering cooperation.
• Transhipment: The shipment of goods or containers to an intermediate destination, then to another destination.
• Ganga Water Treaty: A bilateral agreement between India and Bangladesh on sharing the waters of the River Ganga, signed in 1996.
• Interim Government: A provisional government established to manage a country during a transitional period, often after a crisis or before elections.