Nuclear restraint hinges on diplomacy, not force, Pg12

Key Highlights:

• US counterproliferation policies, involving sanctions and military threats, aimed to prevent the spread of WMDs but have shown mixed results.
• The 2003 invasion of Iraq, based on suspicions of nuclear weapons development, lacked hard evidence and was seen as a regime-change operation.
• Iran, as an NPT signatory, faced isolation and sanctions despite maintaining its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes and allowing IAEA inspections.
• North Korea's nuclear ambitions led to diplomatic engagement and sanctions, while India and Pakistan saw prioritized geopolitical engagement despite their nuclear programs.

Detailed Insights:

• The shift towards counterproliferation in the 1990s, driven by fears of nuclear terrorism, prioritized aggressive measures over diplomacy.
• US actions, including withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, have stalled negotiations with Iran and raised concerns about the use of unverified intelligence.
• Selective implementation of counterproliferation policies has eroded the credibility of the non-proliferation regime and fueled nuclear ambitions in some countries.
• Undermining Article IV rights to peaceful nuclear energy under the NPT has created defiance and alienated states whose cooperation is essential.
• The conflation of non-proliferation with counterproliferation has legitimized coercive responses, risking the voluntary architecture of nuclear security norms.
• The ongoing NPT Review Conference faces challenges in restoring consensus between nuclear and non-nuclear armed states due to American unilateralism.
• Strengthening incentives for states to remain committed to the NPT, starting with a renewed emphasis on diplomacy, is crucial for nuclear restraint.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): An international treaty to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
• Counterproliferation: Measures to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction, often involving sanctions and military threats.
• IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency): An international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for military purposes.
• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action): An agreement on the Iranian nuclear program reached in 2015 between Iran and several world powers.