START is over. Will a nuclear arms race restart?, Pg10

Key Highlights:

• The New START treaty between the US and Russia expired on February 4, 2026, removing legally binding limits on their nuclear arsenals.
• In 2023, Russia suspended participation in the New START treaty amid the Ukraine war.
• Donald Trump announced in October 2025 the resumption of nuclear weapons testing in the US for the first time in over three decades.
• The absence of arms control agreements may lead to nuclear proliferation in regions like West Asia, with countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt potentially acquiring nuclear weapons.

Detailed Insights:

• The expiration of the New START treaty could trigger a security dilemma, where both the US and Russia expand their nuclear stockpiles due to perceived threats.
• The stability-instability paradox suggests that while the risk of direct nuclear war may decrease, the likelihood of low-intensity conflicts and proxy wars could increase.
• Without arms control agreements, the nuclear threshold becomes harder to read, intensifying the stability-instability paradox.
• Failure to control nuclear weapons by the US and Russia could encourage nuclear proliferation in countries like Iran, potentially leading to a domino effect in the Middle East.
• The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev serves as an example of successful arms control through diplomacy.

Key Concepts Involved:

• New START Treaty: A nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia, limiting the number of deployed nuclear warheads and delivery systems.
• Security Dilemma: A situation in which actions by a state intended to increase its security, such as increasing military strength, can lead other states to respond with similar measures, producing increased tensions.
• Nuclear Proliferation: The spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as "Nuclear Weapon States".