A turning point for nuclear deterrence, Pg7

Key Highlights:

• Cracks in the NATO alliance due to strained US-Europe relations are raising concerns about European security.
• The New START agreement between the U.S. and Russia is expiring, potentially leading to increased nuclear stockpiles.
• China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, reportedly adding 100 warheads annually since 2023, reaching 600 in total.
• The Ukraine war demonstrates that a non-nuclear state can defend itself against a nuclear adversary through robust conventional defense.

Detailed Insights:

• The trust deficit between Europe and the U.S., particularly after events like the Greenland dispute, challenges the foundation of NATO as a reliable nuclear alliance.
• The debate on nuclear deterrence has largely remained unchanged since the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), despite evolving global threats like terrorism and climate change.
• The concept of deterrence has historically swung between certainty and uncertainty of nuclear response; however, a strong taboo against nuclear weapon deployment has emerged since 1945.
• The Coalition of the Willing, an ad hoc group of mainly European states, is guaranteeing Ukraine’s security, showcasing alternative security arrangements beyond traditional nuclear alliances.
• Europe's future security architecture, whether based on a new nuclear alliance or a defensive alliance with a nuclear element, will significantly influence global discussions on nuclear weapons and deterrence strategies.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Nuclear Deterrence: A military strategy where the threat of nuclear retaliation is used to prevent an attack.
• New START: A nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia, limiting the number of deployed nuclear warheads.
• NATO: A military alliance established in 1949, creating a system of collective defense whereby its member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party.