Drop in Russia oil exports to India after US sanctions, Pg1.

Key Highlights:

• Russian oil exports to India have decreased following US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil.
• HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) has suspended Russian oil imports, while Indian Oil Corporation will comply with sanctions.
• Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is assessing the implications of the sanctions and will comply with Indian government guidance.
• India's Russian oil imports in October 2025 averaged 1.62 million bpd, accounting for almost 34% of total oil imports.

Detailed Insights:

• The decline in exports from Rosneft and Lukoil aligns with the US deadline of November 21, 2025, for winding down dealings with these companies.
• The threat of secondary sanctions from the US is prompting caution among Indian companies and banks to avoid potential penalties.
• While a complete halt in Russian oil imports is unlikely, December-January imports are expected to decrease as refiners adjust supply chains.
• Indian refiners are anticipated to diversify their oil sources, increasing procurement from West Asia, West Africa, Latin America, and North America.
• Despite short-term disruptions, Russian oil is expected to continue flowing to India through more complex logistical and financial arrangements.
• The US sanctions aim to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine, marking a major escalation in the US approach.
• India relies on imports for about 88% of its crude oil needs, making it the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Primary Sanctions: Restrictions on engagement of American citizens/entities with sanctioned entities.
• Secondary Sanctions: Limits engagement of other countries with the sanctioned entity.
• OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control): US Treasury Department office administering economic sanctions.