US, China are recalibrating ties. Five ways India must respond, Pg10

Key Highlights:

• The US-China relationship is undergoing recalibration, with the US focusing on economic competition and domestic priorities, while China seeks stability for economic and technological advancement.
• The Iran war has exposed the US as unpredictable, contrasting with China's call for ceasefire and adherence to international law.
• China is benefiting from the global transition to electrostates due to its dominance in renewable energy, while the US focuses on fossil fuels.
• India's strategic space is being squeezed, with diminished utility of external balancing through the US and a bipolar global AI landscape.
• India needs to recalibrate expectations from external balancing, engage China in strategic conversations, and build economic and technological resilience.

Detailed Insights:

• The US is becoming less predictable and more militarized in its diplomacy, while China appears responsible and restrained on the global stage.
• China has diversified its energy imports, built strategic petroleum reserves, and leads in electrification and green technology supply chains.
• India's interest in improved relations with China is perceived by some Chinese analysts as a result of turbulence in India-US ties, reducing Beijing's incentive to offer concessions.
• The global AI landscape is moving towards bipolarity, posing challenges for India's strategic and security alignment.
• India should deepen cooperation with the US on defense, maritime awareness, and critical technologies, while engaging China in substantive strategic conversations.
• India must resist China's proposal for an "early harvest" in boundary negotiations and insist that peace along the LAC is a prerequisite for broader normalization.
• India needs to build economic and technological resilience by reducing dependencies on China and avoiding new dependencies on the US, particularly in AI.
• India should avoid the illusion of "middle-power coalitions" and focus on a reimagined Neighbourhood First Policy and reinvigoration of the Act East Policy.

Key Concepts Involved:

• External Balancing: A strategy where states ally to prevent one state from dominating the system.
• Asymmetric Deterrence: Military strategy where a weaker state deters a stronger one by exploiting vulnerabilities.
• Salami-Slicing: A tactic of gradually accumulating small actions, none of which warrants a major response.