High chances of El Niño after July, says WMO, Pg8

Key Highlights:

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts a high probability of El Niño development in the latter half of 2026.
• La Niña, the cool phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is weakening, transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions.
• Multiple weather models, including the India Meteorological Department (IMD), support the prediction of El Niño after July.
• El Niño's warming sea surface temperatures could coincide with the peak southwest monsoon season in India (June-September).

Detailed Insights:

• El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that affects global weather patterns.
• The southwest monsoon season from June to September provides India with over 70% of its annual rainfall, approximately 880mm.
• July and August are the wettest months, accounting for over 50% of the total southwest monsoon rainfall.
• Historically, most El Niño years have resulted in reduced monsoon rainfall in India, impacting agriculture and the economy.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: The warm phase of ENSO, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• La Niña: The cool phase of ENSO, marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• ENSO-Neutral: A condition where neither El Niño nor La Niña is present, and sea surface temperatures are near average in the equatorial Pacific.