Demographic Dividend, Pg11

Key Highlights:

• Over 70% of the global population now resides in countries with fertility rates at or below the replacement level of 2.1.
• China's population aged 65 and above doubled from 7% to 14% in approximately two decades.
• China's fertility rate is estimated at 0.9, which is below Japan's 1.2.
• India's fertility rate has also fallen below the replacement level, currently estimated at 1.9 to 2.0 children per woman.
• The demographic dividend previously enjoyed by countries like India and China is now diminishing.

Detailed Insights:

• A fertility rate below the replacement level indicates that a generation is not producing enough children to replace itself, potentially leading to population decline.
• China's rapid increase in its elderly population highlights the challenges of an ageing population, including potential strain on social security and healthcare systems.
• India's declining fertility rate suggests a shift in its demographic profile, moving towards a future with a smaller working-age population relative to dependents.
• The fading demographic dividend implies a reduced window of opportunity for economic growth driven by a large young workforce.
• To mitigate challenges, India needs to focus on skill development, job creation, and social security for the elderly.
• India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined significantly from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021, with urban TFR at 1.6 and rural at 2.1.
• Regional disparities exist, with southern states having lower fertility rates earlier due to factors like high literacy and women's empowerment.
• The government has constituted a High-Level Committee on Demographic Change to study demographic shifts, including those from illegal immigration.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Demographic Dividend: The economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share.
• Replacement Level Fertility: The total fertility rate (TFR) at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration, typically around 2.1 births per woman.
• Ageing Population: A demographic trend characterized by an increasing median age in a population due to declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy.