US and Israel may not be prepared for Iran's resilience, Pg11

Key Highlights:

• US and Israel launched a coordinated aerial offensive against Iran on February 28, 2026, following heightened tensions and stalled US-Iran talks.
• The attacks resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with top officials including the IRGC chief.
• Iran retaliated with aerial attacks targeting US assets in Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
• Iran has initiated a constitutional process to appoint a new Supreme Leader, with an interim council assuming duties.

Detailed Insights:

• The US and Israel framed the offensive with the objective of regime change in Iran, but Iran has demonstrated resilience and continuity in governance.
• Iran's counter-offensive has targeted key US military installations, including the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama.
• Gulf states, while condemning Iran's actions, may be hesitant to offer strong support to the US-Israel offensive due to concerns about their own security.
• Escalation could lead to new sanctions against Iran and disrupt critical trade and energy-supply routes, with significant implications for South Asia and India.
• India has a strong interest in the stability of Iran, and reckless targeting of nuclear sites in Iran could pose risks of radioactive contamination across the region.

Key Concepts Involved:

• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A branch of the Iranian Armed Forces tasked with protecting the country's Islamic system.
• Assembly of Experts: A deliberative body of elected clerics in Iran that appoints the Supreme Leader.
• Guardian Council: An Iranian body responsible for interpreting the constitution and vetting candidates.