El Nino might occur after July; a clear picture will emerge after April: IMD, Pg11

Key Highlights:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a potential El Nino development after July.
• ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue until July.
• Climate models indicate a greater than 50% chance of El Nino after June, rising to nearly 70% during July-September.
• Below-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of India during February, with higher temperatures, except in southern regions.

Detailed Insights:

• El Nino, characterized by warming of the central equatorial Pacific, is often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India; the last global El Nino was in 2023-24.

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• La Nina is the opposite of El Nino, marked by cooling of the Pacific Ocean, and both are cyclical phenomena impacting global weather patterns.
• Early climate models suggest a possible El Nino in 2026, increasing the risk of a sub-par monsoon and potential drought conditions across India.
• Forecasts made in April are generally more accurate than those in February and March, providing a clearer picture of the El Nino's development.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Nino: Warming of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, often linked to weaker monsoon rainfall in India.
• La Nina: Cooling of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, the opposite of El Nino, impacting global weather.
• ENSO-neutral: A state where neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions are present in the Pacific Ocean.