UPSC 2024 Mains GS1 Model Answer - What is the concept of 'demographic winter'? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate.
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•SuperKalam
Feb, 2025
•1 min read
Q7. What is the concept of 'demographic winter'? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate.
Approach
Introduction
The term 'demographic winter' refers to the decline in birth rates, leading to an ageing population and socio-economic challenges. Below are five causes and four impacts of this phenomenon:
Body
Causes:
- Declining Birth Rates: Countries like Italy and Japan have birth rates below 2.1 children per woman (World Bank).
- Increased Life Expectancy: Japan’s life expectancy stands at 84 years, contributing to an ageing population.
- Economic Pressures: High costs of living in cities like Tokyo and New York discourage larger families.
- Women's Empowerment: Increased participation of women in the workforce correlates with lower fertility rates globally.
- Delayed Marriages and Parenthood: In countries like South Korea, marriage and childbirth are delayed, contributing to a reduced birth rate.
Impacts:
- Shrinking Workforce: Countries like Germany face labor shortages due to a declining working-age population.
- Economic Strain: Aging populations increase pressure on social security systems, with the U.S. Social Security is projected to run out by 2034.
- Lower Economic Growth: Japan’s sluggish GDP growth is partly due to its ageing population.
- Intergenerational Inequity: Younger generations may bear heavier tax burdens to support the elderly.
Conclusion
Addressing demographic winter requires policies like family incentives, immigration reforms, and long-term planning, as seen in countries like Sweden and France, to maintain population balance.
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