Change in leadership in the US & its impact on India-US relations
Introduction
A change in leadership in the United States often leads to shifts in foreign policy priorities, which can have a profound impact on its relationships with key partners, including India. The India-US relationship is multifaceted, spanning trade, defence, technology, and climate cooperation, and it is deeply influenced by the ideological inclinations and strategic goals of the incoming US administration. While the core interests generally remain stable, the emphasis on different aspects—such as human rights, regional security, or economic policies—varies with each leadership. These changes can either strengthen the existing partnership or present new challenges, depending on evolving geopolitical and bilateral priorities.
Historical Context of India-US Relations
India-US relations have been shaped by several historical events and the global political landscape. Each shift in US leadership has had profound implications for the bilateral relationship:
1947–1960s: After India’s independence, its policy of Non-Alignment often put it at odds with US Cold War alliances. The US support for Pakistan in regional conflicts, especially the 1965 and 1971 wars, created friction.
1970s: Relations deteriorated after India’s 1974 nuclear test, leading to US sanctions and deepening distrust, compounded by US’s continued support for Pakistan during the 1971 India-Pakistan war.
1980s: India cautiously reopened dialogues with the US, particularly under Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. However, Cold War tensions limited the scope of the relationship.
1990s: With the end of the Cold War and India’s economic liberalisation in 1991, there was room for closer ties. Despite the nuclear tests of 1998 and resulting sanctions, strategic discussions began to take shape, especially in defence and economic cooperation.
2000s: The landmark 2008 Civil Nuclear Agreement marked a major breakthrough, facilitating increased defence cooperation. India emerged as a key player in the US’s broader Asia-Pacific strategy.
2010s: Under Barack Obama, ties grew even further. Strategic cooperation expanded into counterterrorism, climate change, and defence. Important agreements such as LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) and increased defence collaboration strengthened the US-India partnership.
2020s: Under both the Trump and Biden administrations, India was increasingly seen as a central player in the Indo-Pacific region, with agreements such as COMCASA and BECA further strengthening ties. The Quad, a strategic group comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, also became central to regional security efforts.
Trump 1.0: India-US Relations
During Donald Trump’s first term (2017-2021), India-US relations saw both growth and challenges. Strategic and defence cooperation deepened, but trade issues, immigration concerns, and specific policy decisions presented complications.
Growth:
Strengthened Strategic Partnership: India-US ties grew closer, particularly in defence, counterterrorism, and regional security. A major initiative was the revival of the Quad, which aimed to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Enhanced Defence Cooperation: Important agreements like COMCASA (2018) and BECA (2020) significantly enhanced military cooperation, with India’s defence procurement from the US reaching $8 billion annually by 2019.
Personal Diplomacy: The strong personal rapport between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump played a key role in cementing the relationship. Symbolic milestones such as Modi’s 2019 visit to the US and Trump’s 2020 visit to India underlined the growing partnership.
Challenges:
Kashmir Mediation Controversy: Trump’s unsolicited offer to mediate between India and Pakistan over Kashmir was rejected by India, causing diplomatic tensions as India firmly opposed any third-party mediation.
Trade Relations and Tariff Disputes: The trade relationship saw setbacks, particularly with Trump’s criticism of India’s tariffs. He labelled India a “tariff king” and withdrew India’s preferential market access under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) in 2019.
Impact on H-1B Visa Holders: Trump’s stance on immigration, particularly the H-1B visa program, created friction with India, as it made it more difficult for Indian tech professionals to obtain work visas, directly impacting the flow of skilled workers and technology cooperation.
Energy Imports and Iran: The US’s pressure on India to stop importing oil from Iran, especially under Trump’s sanctions regime, created complications in India’s energy strategy, as it was heavily dependent on Iranian crude oil.
Trump 2.0: Policy Changes & Probable Challenges to India
If Trump were to serve a second term, his policies could present both opportunities and challenges for India, as his transactional approach to foreign policy would likely continue.
Opportunities:
Transactional Diplomacy: Trump’s focus on “America First” could provide India with the opportunity to negotiate flexible, mutually beneficial deals, especially in areas such as defense, trade, and technology.
Strengthening Indo-Pacific Strategy: India could further deepen its cooperation with the US in countering China’s rising influence in the Indo-Pacific region. This would not only help India assert its role but also advance the US’s strategic goals in the region.
Challenges:
Immigration Policy: Trump’s anti-immigration stance, particularly regarding H-1B visas, would continue to affect India’s tech industry, which heavily relies on these visas for its professionals.
Trade Relations and Tariffs: Trump’s policy of economic nationalism and imposition of high tariffs could strain India-US trade relations. India may need to revise its trade policies to address these challenges and ensure continued economic cooperation.
Great Power Dynamics and the Quad: The US may pressure India to take a more active role in the Quad and regional security initiatives, especially in relation to countering China and Russia. While India shares concerns over China’s rise, balancing ties with Russia—its longstanding defence partner—could present a challenge.
US-Russia Relations: Trump’s possible rapprochement with Russia could complicate India’s position, as India traditionally maintains strong ties with Russia. India may face a dilemma in balancing its relations with both the US and Russia, especially regarding issues such as the Ukraine conflict.
Way Ahead for India-US Relations under Trump 2.0
To manage potential challenges and capitalise on opportunities, India should adopt a proactive approach in its relationship with the US under Trump’s second term:
Enhance Strategic Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific:
Strengthen regional security cooperation, especially in counterterrorism and economic integration.
Expand Quad cooperation and align with the US’s efforts to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Recalibrate Trade and Economic Policies:
Focus on negotiating bilateral agreements to address trade imbalances.
Continue domestic reforms to improve fair trade practices, enhance exports, and promote economic resilience.
Mitigate the Impact of Immigration and H-1B Visa Policies:
Work to facilitate legal immigration while addressing concerns over illegal immigration.
Advocate for a balanced visa policy that considers the contributions of Indian professionals to the US economy and the tech sector.
Leverage Strategic Autonomy in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict:
Maintain strong ties with Russia while engaging with the US on critical global issues.
Position India as a diplomatic bridge for dialogue between the US, Russia, and other key stakeholders in global security.
Strengthen Domestic Resilience:
Focus on building industrial capacity, technological capabilities, and energy security.
Promote initiatives such as “Make in India” and explore alternative energy sources to reduce dependency on external suppliers.
Conclusion
While changes in US leadership inevitably bring shifts in foreign policy, the India-US relationship, grounded in shared strategic interests, is likely to continue evolving regardless of the administration. Under both Trump’s first and potential second term, India must strategically navigate challenges in trade, immigration, and defence while seizing opportunities in regional security and technological cooperation. By fostering a resilient, balanced approach, India can ensure that its partnership with the US remains robust, aligning with its broader geopolitical and economic goals.
Understanding the change in US leadership is essential for your UPSC CSE preparation as it impacts several key areas
India and its Neighborhood Relations: Shifts in US policies affect India’s regional strategies, especially towards Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan.
Bilateral, Regional, and Global Groupings: US leadership transitions influence India’s agreements on defence, trade, and multilateral groupings like the Quad.
India’s Interests and Diaspora: Changes in US policies, especially on immigration and trade, directly affect India’s economy and the Indian diaspora.
International Institutions: The US plays a pivotal role in shaping global institutions like the UN and WTO, affecting India’s strategic goals.
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