The global nuclear order is unraveling due to conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas, with nuclear weapons being used for geopolitical leverage. This emerging disorder poses a complex strategic challenge, especially for India in its multi-nuclear neighborhood.
Introduction
The global nuclear order is witnessing rapid deterioration, driven by intensifying geopolitical rivalries, technological disruptions, and the erosion of multilateral arms control frameworks. Key powers like the United States, China, and Russia are recalibrating their nuclear strategies, while emerging actors and regional conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, further strain international norms. For India, situated in a complex and volatile neighborhood, this evolving nuclear landscape poses significant challenges to its strategic security and policy framework.
Evolution of the Global Nuclear Order
Geopolitical Rivalries Reshaping the Nuclear Balance
U.S.-China tensions are redefining global nuclear postures, with China’s rapid buildup surpassing 500 warheads, moving away from its earlier policy of minimum deterrence.
Enhanced U.S. military aid to Taiwan and the AUKUS initiative exemplify counter-balancing efforts in the Indo-Pacific.
Russia’s aggressive posture, including nuclear threats during the Ukraine conflict, undermines global nuclear restraint.
Technological Disruptions Amplifying Instability
Emerging technologies like AI, hypersonic missiles, and cyberwarfare disrupt traditional doctrines of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
Advanced defense systems and AI-driven space monitoring tools by nations like Israel and the U.S. increase vulnerabilities in nuclear command structures.
Cyber threats, as seen in attacks like Stuxnet, highlight risks to nuclear infrastructure.
Resurgence of the Nuclear Arms Race
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) framework is weakening due to non-compliance and growing nuclear stockpiles, especially in volatile regions.
Regional tensions intensify with China’s nuclear expansion and Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons challenging India’s strategic stability.
Erosion of Multilateral Arms Control Mechanisms
Major arms control agreements like New START are suspended, and institutions like the Conference on Disarmament are stagnant.
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is sidelined by nuclear-armed states, undermining global disarmament efforts.
Integration of Civilian Nuclear Programs into Military Strategies
Nations like South Korea and Japan are advancing civilian nuclear capabilities with potential dual-use applications.
Shifts in nuclear energy policies, as seen in Japan’s post-Fukushima revival of nuclear power, further complicate the global order.
India’s Stance on Nuclear Weapons
Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy
India champions nuclear energy for sustainable development, operating 22 reactors with a focus on reducing carbon emissions.
As a signatory to the Convention on Nuclear Safety, India emphasizes robust safeguards for civilian nuclear facilities.
Commitment to No First Use (NFU)
India’s NFU policy is central to its doctrine, emphasizing nuclear deterrence without aggression.
The 2003 Nuclear Doctrine underscores credible minimum deterrence while allowing for strategic recalibration.
Strategic Autonomy in Non-Proliferation
India aligns with NPT goals but opposes its discriminatory nature; its 2008 NSG waiver allows global nuclear commerce.
Civil nuclear cooperation with nations like the U.S., Russia, and France reflects India’s balanced approach.
Active Role in Global Non-Proliferation
India collaborates with the IAEA and voluntarily places civilian facilities under international safeguards.
Emphasis on domestic safeguards strengthens India’s commitment to non-proliferation norms.
Balancing Civilian and Strategic Needs
Indigenous programs like the three-stage thorium cycle underline India’s focus on self-reliance.
Facilities like BARC symbolize the dual emphasis on strategic security and civilian energy development.
Threats India Faces Due to Global Nuclear Disorder
Erosion of Arms Control Agreements
Suspension of agreements like New START raises risks of proliferation, intensifying regional arms races.
China’s NSG veto hampers India’s access to advanced nuclear technologies.
Tactical Nuclear Threats
Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons and “Full Spectrum Deterrence” doctrine heighten risks during conventional conflicts.
Emerging Technological Vulnerabilities
Hypersonic weapons and cyber threats expose critical infrastructure; incidents like the 2019 Kudankulam malware attack highlight these risks.
Shifting Alliances in a Multipolar World
Partnerships like the China-Russia axis and nuclear cooperation with Pakistan destabilize India’s security environment.
Pressures on NFU Policy
Tactical deployments by adversaries and evolving threats may compel India to recalibrate its NFU doctrine.
Economic and Environmental Risks
Nuclear accidents in conflict zones underscore risks of fallout, complicating India’s ambitious energy expansion goals.
Steps India Can Take to Address Growing Nuclear Threats
Strengthen Nuclear Deterrence
Modernize delivery systems, including hypersonic missiles and MIRV technologies, to maintain credible deterrence.
Expand SLBM capabilities to ensure robust second-strike options.
Enhance Cybersecurity
Establish specialized agencies to protect nuclear infrastructure, drawing lessons from past cyber incidents.
Incorporate AI-driven systems for early warning and infrastructure monitoring.
Refine NFU Policy
Introduce strategic ambiguity to deter limited nuclear use by adversaries while retaining NFU as a cornerstone.
Accelerate Indigenous Development
Fast-track thorium-based reactors to enhance self-reliance and reduce dependency on global supply chains.
Invest in small modular reactors (SMRs) to decentralize nuclear energy production.
Strengthen Command and Control
Upgrade nuclear decision-making systems with AI-based early warning and survivability mechanisms.
Lead Global Arms Control Efforts
Revive proposals like the Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan for disarmament and advocate for banning destabilizing technologies.
Leverage Regional Alliances
Collaborate with Quad and similar platforms for joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and nuclear risk mitigation.
Promote Public Awareness
Enhance transparency in nuclear policy to build public trust and deter misinformation.
Conclusion
The unraveling global nuclear order demands a proactive and adaptive response from India. By modernizing its deterrence, bolstering cybersecurity, and engaging in multilateral diplomacy, India can navigate the emerging challenges while upholding its commitment to peace and stability. Balancing strategic autonomy with international collaboration will enable India to secure its national interests and contribute to global nuclear security.
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